Global Market Insights for Going Global in 2025: Issue 1- On the Direction of Longtermism

This report mainly analyzes the policy environment, industry trends, and typical enterprise cases of the global outbound market in 2025. The core content is as follows:

I. Global Outbound Policy Insights: Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Response Strategies

1. U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Game

- The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on multiple countries (e.g., China’s average rate is 34%, EU is 20%), far exceeding market expectations. Ostensibly, this is to correct trade deficits and tariff inversion, but it ignores economic differences among countries.

- In the short term, this may trigger a “high tariff spiral” (mutual retaliatory tariff increases among countries) or “conditional cooperation” (some countries compromise). In the long run, the flow of technology and capital may gradually dissolve tariff barriers.

- The strategy of Chinese enterprises exporting via emerging countries is uncertain. It is recommended to shift to full localization of “production+brand+service,” such as leveraging overseas warehouses and departure tax rebate policies to accelerate capital turnover.

2. U.S. Cancellation of $800 Tariff Exemption

- By September 2025, the exemption for small orders will be fully cancelled. Cross-border e-commerce costs will rise by 15%-20%, and sellers relying on low-price strategies may see profits compressed by 50%-80%.

- Response measures include deploying overseas warehouses, optimizing logistics, and adapting to policies such as “bi-directional cross-border returns” to reduce reverse logistics costs.

II. Global Outbound Industry Hotspots: Smart Pet Products and Game Consumption

1. Smart Pet Products: Long-Term Growth and Product Iteration

- The U.S. is the largest market (2024 consumption exceeds $60 billion). The global market is expected to grow from $5.9 billion in 2024 to $35.3 billion in 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of over 18%.

- Products should focus on functionality and modularity, such as smart cat litter boxes (automatic cleaning, health monitoring), feeders (AI-based portion recognition), and integrate data to connect with pet medical service ecosystems.

- Market strategies vary greatly: the U.S. emphasizes high-end premium products, while emerging markets like Brazil should first promote basic models.

2. Game Outbound: Multi-Platform Penetration and Differentiated Growth

- Mobile games rely on emerging markets (in-app purchase growth of 18% in the Middle East and Latin America), but new game downloads are declining, requiring a shift to long-term operations. Console games are driven by AAA titles (such as on the PS platform), PC games benefit from handheld products, with both buyout and in-app purchase revenues increasing.

- Cost structure changes: Console game development costs allocate 40%-55% to engines and planning, mobile games allocate 25%-35% to user acquisition. In the future, the Live Service model (continuous content updates) will become mainstream.

III. Global Multinational Enterprise Case: Publicis Groupe’s M&A and Integration

- Core strategy: Strengthen data capabilities through frequent acquisitions (such as Epsilon, LOTAME), integrate business with the “Power Of One” strategy, provide full-domain marketing services, and reduce internal coordination costs.

- Financial performance: Net new business income has led the industry for nearly six years, net profit margin remains stable at 8%-10%, business regions cover Europe and America (61.5%), Asia-Pacific (24.2%), with balanced industry distribution (mainly automotive, luxury, TMT).

- M&A logic: Focus on technological synergy (such as AI, data privacy) and business supplementation, avoid large-scale restructuring risks. For example, acquiring Influential to supplement social marketing resources and improve KOL cooperation efficiency.

Summary: The Key to Long-Termism

The report emphasizes that in the face of policy uncertainty and industry competition, enterprises need to focus on deep local operations (brand, service, supply chain) and technology-driven approaches (data, AI, modular products), avoid short-term arbitrage thinking, and achieve sustainable growth through systematic layout.