This document is an industry research report on TikTok released by Guotai Junan Securities. The core viewpoint is that TikTok is approaching a commercialization inflection point, with a trillion-dollar market expected, and it is recommended to pay attention to related investment opportunities.
1. Douyin Development and Commercialization Analysis: Since its launch in 2016, Douyin's user numbers have exploded. After 2020, commercialization accelerated, and its current MAU has reached 780 million, making it the largest short video platform in China. Its commercialization covers four major areas: advertising, e-commerce, gaming, and local life. Advertising revenue ranks first in China, e-commerce GMV ranks fourth, and its business landscape continues to expand, actively exploring emerging technology fields.
2. TikTok Development, User Growth, and Commercialization Research
- Development History: In 2015 - 2016, the overseas version of Toutiao made initial attempts; from 2017 - 2019, after acquiring Musical.ly, it expanded globally. Since 2020, user numbers have exploded, now ranking among the global TOP5 social apps, with revenue of about $18 billion in 2023.
- User Growth: As of April 2024, MAU has reached 1.58 billion, with a global (excluding China) penetration rate of 41.6%. In the next five years, MAU is expected to exceed 3 billion. Benchmarking Douyin, under different assumptions, TikTok's MAU in 2029 is expected to reach 3.01 - 3.81 billion.
- Commercialization: Started 2 - 3 years later than Douyin. In 2023, advertising revenue was about $13.2 billion, and e-commerce revenue was about $4.8 billion. In the future, advertising revenue per user is expected to increase fourfold, with revenue expected to exceed $150 billion by 2029; e-commerce revenue per user is expected to increase several dozen times, with revenue expected to reach $200 billion by 2029. Overall, TikTok's total revenue scale in 2029 is expected to reach $268.2 - $453.4 billion.
3. Industry Chain Benefit Analysis and Investment Recommendations: The Douyin and TikTok industry chains involve content producers, marketing service providers, and service tools. Four types of investment opportunities are recommended: advertising agencies closely cooperating with TikTok, companies actively building TikTok live streaming operation teams, overseas content distribution companies, and official tool or content suppliers.
4. Risk Warning: There are risks such as escalation of geopolitical risks and overseas market expansion falling short of expectations. Sanctions by overseas countries or improper data handling may affect TikTok's growth, and TikTok's expansion into overseas markets faces challenges such as differences in culture, consumption habits, and legal regulations.
Short answer for decision makers
This TikTok business signal should be used as a planning prompt, not a standalone trend. The practical question is whether your brand has the market readiness, creator supply, Shop conversion path, paid-media structure, and reporting cadence to act on it now.
Key facts
- Market signal: TikTok Market Research Analysis Report
- Published: March 6, 2025
- Source transparency: the original source linked in this article
Tuke recommendation
Choose one market, one product group, one creator cohort, and one KPI for the next operating cycle. Then align creative testing, TikTok Shop optimization, live commerce readiness, and weekly reporting around that single decision.
What should brands do with this TikTok signal?
Brands should translate the signal into a focused operating test across creative, creators, TikTok Shop readiness, paid media, and reporting before increasing budget.
How does Tuke Marketing evaluate this kind of news?
Tuke Marketing reviews platform news through market timing, category demand, creator supply, commerce readiness, and measurable growth actions.
When should a team contact Tuke about this topic?
A team should contact Tuke when it needs to turn a TikTok market signal into a practical launch, creator, advertising, live commerce, or reporting plan.
Source transparency: Tuke cites the original source linked in this article and adds its own operating analysis for brands evaluating TikTok growth decisions.